Raw data doesn't always translate well to the average consumer. Most of the data is just noise, as most of the universe is filled with empty space. We live in a world of data, data that is easily collected and easily computed by supercomputers that can reel off millions of calculations a second, but in my experience there are few people that know how to interpret the data and therefore make good use of it. In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by Time. Book of the Month also offers 3, 6, and 9-month gift cards if you are considering purchasing it as a gift. This one is getting great reviews, so I wanted to make sure to include it. Dimple Pennington knows of her half siblings, but she doesn't really know them. He characterizes such people as hedgehogs; their opposite are the nimble minded foxes, always seeking out new information and willing to try out new frameworks for fit. The book's central themes are the importance of Bayesian stats (as opposed to Fisher type confidence intervals based only on data) as the optimal blend of expertise and data and the difficulty of distinguishing the true signal from underlying noise which can either obscure the signal or create false ones. Rather than repeat the explanation here, I have added some useful websites in the notes section. This impressed me as an attempt (possibly at the urging of an editor? ) There's more: Silver relates the work of a UC Berkeley psychology and political science professor named Philip Tetlock, who categorizes experts as either foxes or hedgehogs (in deference to an ancient Greek poet who wrote, "The fox knows many little things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.
There are lots of examples and stories (sometimes amusing; I liked the Chess story in Chapter 9), but the stories lead the reader to few insights. But, overall, after a few strong opening innings, the precision of text and purpose waned. Poor predictors often share the characteristics of ignorance of facts, inappropriate application of basic probability analyses, and, especially, overconfidence. Silver also points out another dichotomy. Lynda Cohen Loigman. Statisticians rarely become superstars, but Nate Silver is getting close. Self-Publishing Thrives. One of the observations he makes is obvious to anyone who has ever entered the mud fight that is twitter. On the other hand, this book is simply a series of vignettes. I assume those who had basic statistics would enjoy it more. That is his interest in, and application of, Bayesian reasoning or inference. If the people who supposedly know what they're talking about often really don't, how can the rest of us figure out what's going on? What are you waiting for?
It is in the vein of Malcolm Gladwell, but about three times as long and dense (and therefore more substantial). A Room Called Earth. An ancient ritual might heal you of anything—if you bury yourself alive. March 2023: Pineapple Street by Jenny Jackson. Lf you don't want spoilers do not scroll any further down. I felt I appreciated Silver's approach to the problems more this time, hence I added one star. Okay the premise for this book is giving me The Love Hypothesis vibes, so I hope it is a pick! Incorporated into the model is a sim-city of human behavior parsed by demographic details down to the minutest level. Or, after your third box, you can choose from five member favorite books for your month's selection instead. From the best-selling author of Atonement and Saturday comes the epic and intimate story of one man's life across generations and historical upheavals: from the Suez Crisis to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the fall of the Berlin Wall to the current pandemic, Roland Baines sometimes rides with the tide of history, but more often struggles against it.
But thank goodness I don't have mud streaming into my house like some of my neighbors, and I haven't been evacuated yet. By brushing Hume aside so casually, Silver spits in the face of his own philosophical progenitor - a man who helped plant the foundations for the sort of thinking that Silver now takes for granted. Furthermore, there is too much detail and bla-blas on some of the topic such as baseball and basketball players in America, which makes the book boring or too Americanized! Also, I sadly did not feel like I had gained a very deep understanding of Bayesian thinking by the end, which is unfortunate since that is one of the main points of the book. He contrasts the distribution of deaths in terrorist attacks in the US and Israel, pointing out that where the US numbers follow a rough power law, deaths in Israel tail off before 100 people killed in an incident, which he puts down to their approach to security.
The examples only lead to one conclusion clearly. The Picture of Dorian Gray, Dracula, and Selected Tales of Edgar Allan Poe. No author announced for September/October Box. Revised estimate of probability that I will buy Nate Silver a drink, given that his book was illuminating and enjoyable: xy/xy + z(1-x) = 15. In Bliss Montage, Ling Ma brings us eight wildly different tales of people making their way through the madness and reality of our collective delusions: love and loneliness, connection and possession, friendship, motherhood, the idea of home. Heuristics like Occam's razor... sound sexy, but they are hard to apply.... An admonition like "The more complex you make the model the worse the forecast gets" is equivalent to saying "Never add too much salt to the recipe".... I've heard great things about it's rich imagery, so I think it'll be a fun option to balance a few of the more serious tomes currently on my bookshelf. Many other reporting small scales of much larger real world dependable factors also. In 2010, Silver's FiveThirtyEight. Monsters Born and Made.
Do you agree with my predictions? Literally all positions in which there are six or fewer pieces on the board have been solved to completion. Not surprisingly, Tetlock found that "The more interviews that an expert had done with the press... the worse his predictions tended to be. The idea is that, whenever making any hypothesis (e. g. a positive mammogram is indicative of breast cancer) into a prediction (for example, that a particular woman with a positive mammogram actually has cancer), one must not forget to estimate all the following three pieces of information: 1. Again, not my thing. An unexpected pregnancy pushes a married couple into a raw and emotional exploration of what it is they truly want. Enabling JavaScript in your browser will allow you to experience all the features of our site. This is a fantastic book about predictions. But to statewide ban a book because its ideas scare you or it has a picture of a naked comic animal (yes, Maus was banned because of that), the problem might be you instead of the book. 7/19/22 GMA (Good Morning America) August pick READ WITH JENNA: REESE WITHERSPOON Hello Sunshine (Sorry, I have been on vacation) Reese's pick This is NOT confirmed…I didn't see the sticker in person.
I didn't understand the formula itself until I had worked through several of these alternative explanations. The Montrose women quietly live in their California bungalow full of tinctures and spells.
But what Silver doesn't analyze, here or anywhere else in the book, is how the aspect of risk should be accounted for in making predictions, or in acting on the predictions that we do make. Build your fan base through meaningful conversations with your readers and they will reward you by buying everything you write. As there is an exponential increase in the amount of available information, there is likewise an exponential increase in the number of hypotheses to investigate... We enjoy being in an echo chamber with circulating facts that bolster our initial 'gut' belief. In this powerful novel about the cost of greatness, a legendary athlete attempts a comeback when the world considers her past her prime—from the New York Times bestselling author of Malibu Rising.
That might seem off-putting. Now there is only a 27% chance of >= 3 stars. Down a narrow alley in the small coastal town of Mallow Island, South Carolina, lies a stunning cobblestone building comprised of five apartments. GMA March 2023: Thanks to a comment! I think this will rekindle (no pun intended) the creative juices for many writers and we'll see some great books getting published later this decade. The best predictions are those that are couched in quantitative uncertainties. Reese Witherspoon pick for Jan 2022 hello sunshine Jenna Bush hager today show Jan 2022 pick My sister has been saying that gma pick MAY be The Maid by Nina Prose. And while I love that they are told in a way that conveys the point, I didn't feel like each chapter I was continuing on a journey or growing from point to point. Holly Black is a favorite, and I'd like to see her again.
If you need to be convinced that "the art of making predictions is important, but it is easy to get wrong", read this book. Natalie Walker is the reason her older brother and sister went to prison over 15 years ago. Again, this was the unanimous opinion among my group. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. Although, I did see a sticker of one book online for this month.
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