Suppose we had reports that winter salt flushing was confined to certain areas, that abrupt shifts in the past were associated with localized flushing failures, andthat one computer model after another suggested a solution that was likely to work even under a wide range of weather extremes. Further investigation might lead to revisions in such mechanistic explanations, but the result of adding fresh water to the ocean surface is pretty standard physics. Perish in the act: Those who will not act. Define 3 sheets to the wind. In discussing the ice ages there is a tendency to think of warm as good—and therefore of warming as better. We have to discover what has made the climate of the past 8, 000 years relatively stable, and then figure out how to prop it up.
Three scenarios for the next climatic phase might be called population crash, cheap fix, and muddling through. The discovery of abrupt climate changes has been spread out over the past fifteen years, and is well known to readers of major scientific journals such as Scienceand abruptness data are convincing. Greenland's east coast has a profusion of fjords between 70°N and 80°N, including one that is the world's biggest. We can design for that in computer models of climate, just as architects design earthquake-resistant skyscrapers. We must look at arriving sunlight and departing light and heat, not merely regional shifts on earth, to account for changes in the temperature balance. The modern world is full of objects and systems that exhibit "bistable" modes, with thresholds for flipping. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crossword clue. A gentle pull on a trigger may be ineffective, but there comes a pressure that will suddenly fire the gun. Broecker has written, "If you wanted to cool the planet by 5°C [9°F] and could magically alter the water-vapor content of the atmosphere, a 30 percent decrease would do the job. We might, for example, anchor bargeloads of evaporation-enhancing surfactants (used in the southwest corner of the Dead Sea to speed potash production) upwind from critical downwelling sites, letting winds spread them over the ocean surface all winter, just to ensure later flushing. Light switches abruptly change mode when nudged hard enough. Fatalism, in other words, might well be foolish. We may not have centuries to spare, but any economy in which two percent of the population produces all the food, as is the case in the United States today, has lots of resources and many options for reordering priorities.
Perhaps computer simulations will tell us that the only robust solutions are those that re-create the ocean currents of three million years ago, before the Isthmus of Panama closed off the express route for excess-salt disposal. Scientists have known for some time that the previous warm period started 130, 000 years ago and ended 117, 000 years ago, with the return of cold temperatures that led to an ice age. For Europe to be as agriculturally productive as it is (it supports more than twice the population of the United States and Canada), all those cold, dry winds that blow eastward across the North Atlantic from Canada must somehow be warmed up. For example, I can imagine that ocean currents carrying more warm surface waters north or south from the equatorial regions might, in consequence, cool the Equator somewhat. Though some abrupt coolings are likely to have been associated with events in the Canadian ice sheet, the abrupt cooling in the previous warm period, 122, 000 years ago, which has now been detected even in the tropics, shows that flips are not restricted to icy periods; they can also interrupt warm periods like the present one. The sheet in 3 sheets to the wind crossword answers. 5 million years ago, which is also when the ape-sized hominid brain began to develop into a fully human one, four times as large and reorganized for language, music, and chains of inference. Now only Greenland's ice remains, but the abrupt cooling in the last warm period shows that a flip can occur in situations much like the present one. Eventually such ice dams break, with spectacular results. Twice a year they sink, carrying their load of atmospheric gases downward. But the regional record is poorly understood, and I know at least one reason why. Ancient lakes near the Pacific coast of the United States, it turned out, show a shift to cold-weather plant species at roughly the time when the Younger Dryas was changing German pine forests into scrublands like those of modern Siberia. Surface waters are flushed regularly, even in lakes.
To stabilize our flip-flopping climate we'll need to identify all the important feedbacks that control climate and ocean currents—evaporation, the reflection of sunlight back into space, and so on—and then estimate their relative strengths and interactions in computer models. An abrupt cooling got started 8, 200 years ago, but it aborted within a century, and the temperature changes since then have been gradual in comparison. Change arising from some sources, such as volcanic eruptions, can be abrupt—but the climate doesn't flip back just as quickly centuries later. The populous parts of the United States and Canada are mostly between the latitudes of 30° and 45°, whereas the populous parts of Europe are ten to fifteen degrees farther north. In 1984, when I first heard about the startling news from the ice cores, the implications were unclear—there seemed to be other ways of interpreting the data from Greenland. We are near the end of a warm period in any event; ice ages return even without human influences on climate. This El Niño-like shift in the atmospheric-circulation pattern over the North Atlantic, from the Azores to Greenland, often lasts a decade. The Great Salinity Anomaly, a pool of semi-salty water derived from about 500 times as much unsalted water as that released by Russell Lake, was tracked from 1968 to 1982 as it moved south from Greenland's east coast. A quick fix, such as bombing an ice dam, might then be possible. A meteor strike that killed most of the population in a month would not be as serious as an abrupt cooling that eventually killed just as many. The fact that excess salt is flushed from surface waters has global implications, some of them recognized two centuries ago.
Counting those tree-ring-like layers in the ice cores shows that cooling came on as quickly as droughts. Such a conveyor is needed because the Atlantic is saltier than the Pacific (the Pacific has twice as much water with which to dilute the salt carried in from rivers). The dam, known as the Isthmus of Panama, may have been what caused the ice ages to begin a short time later, simply because of the forced detour. Timing could be everything, given the delayed effects from inch-per-second circulation patterns, but that, too, potentially has a low-tech solution: build dams across the major fjord systems and hold back the meltwater at critical times. If blocked by ice dams, fjords make perfect reservoirs for meltwater. Another underwater ridge line stretches from Greenland to Iceland and on to the Faeroe Islands and Scotland. It could no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. In 1970 it arrived in the Labrador Sea, where it prevented the usual salt sinking. Temperature records suggest that there is some grand mechanism underlying all of this, and that it has two major states. This was posited in 1797 by the Anglo-American physicist Sir Benjamin Thompson (later known, after he moved to Bavaria, as Count Rumford of the Holy Roman Empire), who also posited that, if merely to compensate, there would have to be a warmer northbound current as well. Salt sinking on such a grand scale in the Nordic Seas causes warm water to flow much farther north than it might otherwise do. Europe is an anomaly. Oslo is nearly at 60°N, as are Stockholm, Helsinki, and St. Petersburg; continue due east and you'll encounter Anchorage. North-south ocean currents help to redistribute equatorial heat into the temperate zones, supplementing the heat transfer by winds.
For a quarter century global-warming theorists have predicted that climate creep is going to occur and that we need to prevent greenhouse gases from warming things up, thereby raising the sea level, destroying habitats, intensifying storms, and forcing agricultural rearrangements. Thus the entire lake can empty quickly. A lake surface cooling down in the autumn will eventually sink into the less-dense-because-warmer waters below, mixing things up. By 250, 000 years ago Homo erectushad died out, after a run of almost two million years. It's happening right now:a North Atlantic Oscillation started in 1996. In the Greenland Sea over the 1980s salt sinking declined by 80 percent. "Southerly" Rome lies near the same latitude, 42°N, as "northerly" Chicago—and the most northerly major city in Asia is Beijing, near 40°.
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